As you may have realised, I was away in Greece last week (one of the perks of running a travel agency, discounts available to GGZ readers!), so this is a fortnightly update on a joint effort between myself and Matt.
Sadly, my own personal run of wretched form continued and it appears that the current SotD malaise got to Matt too, as he was also unable to stem the flow of losses, meaning that we’re still to record a single winner for the month.
Matt had said one day last week that he wasn’t too concerned about short-term results and that the overall picture is still good and I’m in full agreement with that comment.
Whilst enjoying some downtime on the sunlounger last week, I looked back over Matt’s selections and also those I put up in the weeks before I went away and I’ve got to say that whilst there might be the odd one we wouldn’t have picked with the benefit of hindsight, we’re both happy with the work we’ve done this month and all the picks we’ve put up were backed by some strong stats.
I’m not glossing over this poor run, as it’s the worst we’ve encountered, but we both (Matt & I) firmly believe that those of you who stick by us will be duly rewarded in time. October has really dented 2019’s figures, but they’re still pretty healthy, as our overall numbers and based on those 2414 previous picks, I’m going to finish today’s piece with the following…
…if we’ve had 645 winners, generating an overall profit of 531.16pts, then those winners have actually realised a return of 2300.16pts when you factor in the 1,769 losing bets. This means the average winner has paid us out at odds of 3.566/1 and there are calculators out there that would suggest we can expect to have losing runs of 26-30 selections. The bottom line, I suppose is that as long as we can keep our long-term strike above 21.9% then we’ll still make money!
So, whilst it’s fair to say that barring some miracle, October is going to be a rare losing month (the 9 in the last 42!), I’m still (a) going to try my best to put some points on the board this week without sacrificing the trusted methodology and (b) confident of an overdue upturn in form that will enable 2019 to be as successful as history suggested it would be.
Selections & Results : 14/10/19 to 26/10/19
14/10 : Affluence @ 7/1 4th at 14/1
15/10 : X Force @ 3/1 4th at 11/4
16/10 : Theflyingportrait @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 4/1
17/10 : Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG 12th at 7/4
18/10 : Charlie D @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4
19/10 : Pushaq @ 10/1 BOG 6th at 9/1
21/10 : Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
22/10 : Equiano Springs @ 13/2 BOG 14th at 15/2
23/10 : Trouble Shooter @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 5/2
24/10 : Roving Mission @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1
25/10 : Lady Adelaide @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/2
26/10 : Flower Garland @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2
14/10/19 to 26/10/19 :
0 winning bets from 12 = 0.00% SR
October 2019 :
0 winners from 23 = 0.00% SR
ROI = -100.00%
2019 to date :
55 winners from 238 = 23.11% SR
ROI = +14.60%
645 winners from 2414 = 26.72% S.R
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD’s 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016’s details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.
2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here