Stat of the Day, 29th October 2019

Monday’s pick was…

5.30 Kempton : Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/8 (Raced wide close up, pushed along 2f out, had every chance, but one paced in final furlong, beaten by less than a length)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Cold Harbour @ 6/1

…in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Fibresand worth £3429 to the winner…

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Well, there’s actually plenty of data to suggest a run better than the odds quoted, so here’s just some of the facts…

The horse…

Cold Harbour is a 4yr old gelding with 4 wins from 10 starts in A/W handicaps including of relevance today…

  • 4 from 9 this year, 4 from 8 going left handed and 4 from 8 on standard going
  • 3/8 as non-fav, 3/4 here at Southwell and 2/6 under jockey Kieran O’Neill
  • 2/3 at 1m4f, 2/3 over C&D and 2/2 after less than a fortnight’s rest
  • 2/2 in fields of 8-10 runners and 1/2 in October.

His sire…

…is North Light, whose progeny are 17 from 68 (25% SR) for 50.7pts (+74.6% ROI) when backed blindly on the All-Weather, including…

  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 46.9pts (+134.1%) in fields of 5 to 11
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) since 2016
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 37.9pts (+105.2%) after a break of 6-30 days
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 47.3pts (+124.6%) in handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 22.4pts (+131.6%) over 11/12 furlongs
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 35.6pts (+131.9%) from September to January…

whilst since 2016 in fields of 5-11 runners, handicappers rested for 6-30 days are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 43.37pts (+619.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 at 11/12 furlongs and 1/1 at todays 1.5 mile trip.

The jockey…

Kieran O’Neill is taking a 23rd ride of the year for trainer Robyn Brisland with 6 wins from the previous 22 (27.3% SR) yielding 27.62pts (+125.6% ROI) profits, all on the All-Weather, from which the partnership is…

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.62pts (+281.7%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 26pts (+200%) on male runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 31.31pts (+313.1%) with 4 yr olds
  • 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) this month…

with 4yr old males sent off at 12/1 and shorter winning 3 of 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.85pts (+383.5% ROI), including 1 from 2 this month and 1 from 1 here at Southwell.

And finally(!) for today, the trainer…

Robyn Brisland is 8 from 47 (17% SR) for 171.9pts (+365.7% ROI) on this track this year, with the following of particular note today…

  • 8/42 (19%) for 176.9pts (+421.2%) on Standard going
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 190.9pts (+681.6%) with those returning from breaks of 6-30 days
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 169.1pts (+545.3%) with those beaten by 3-30 lengths LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 188pts (+940%) with 4 yr olds
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 134.8pts (+421.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.6pts (+220.2%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.25pts (+190.7%) over trips of 11/12 furlongs
  • and 2/9 (22.2%) for 8.68pts (+96.5%) this month alone…

…from which, 4yr old handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter on Standard going, 6-30 days after a defeat by 3-30 lengths LTO are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 26.71pts (+667.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 over 11/12f, 2/2 this month, 2/2 over 1m4f and 1 from over course and distance this month via Cold Harbour 25 days ago…

all of which hopefully corroborates…a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 6/1 as was offered by at least a handful of firms at 5.00pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.45 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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