Stat of the Day, 30th October 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

5.45 Southwell : Cold Harbour @ 6/1 3rd at 5/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, driven to lead again over 2f out, soon ridden, headed over 1f out, modest 3rd inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.50 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £4464 to the winner…


This improving 2 yr old colt is the form horse here, winning two of his last four and also making the frame on one other occasion. He won more comfortably than a one length margin would suggest last time out, when landing a similar Class 4, 7f Nursery over this course and distance 12 days ago and I’m not convinced a 5lb rise elevating him to top weight will be enough to stop him improving upon a record that also show 2 wins and a place from 4 over this 7f trip and 2 wins and a place from three runs going left handed.

Jockey David Nolan is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 14.16pts (+101.2% ROI) over the last three years here at Wolverhampton on horses trained by David O’Meara, including…

  • 5/10 (50%) for 18.16pts (+181.6%) on those with a race in the previous 25 days
  • 5/10 (50%) for 18.16pts (+181.6%) on those sent off shorter than 8/1
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 12.07pts (+120.7%) on handicappers

And I mentioned he was top weight here today, conceding 3lbs or more to all his 10 rivals, but that might not necessarily be a cause for concern, as over the last three years here at Wolverhampton, the top (or joint top) weighted horses in Nurseries are 19 from 54 (35.2% SR) for 47.9pts (+88.7%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter and these include of note/relevance today…

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 48.5pts (+112.8%) conceding 0-3lbs to the next horse in the weights
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 28.6pts (+168.2%) in October
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.7%) over this 7f C&D
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 1.79pts (+12.8%) from LTO winners
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 10.93pts (+99.3%) at Class 4…

…with those carrying 0-3lbs more than the next horse over 7f in October winning 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 18.8pts (+313.2% ROI)…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG as was offered by Bet365 at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst Hills were slightly shorter at 3/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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