Stat of the Day, 31st October 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.50 Wolverhampton : Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Held up towards rear on outside, headway and in touch over 4f out, effort over 1f out, soon ridden, kept on, no extra towards finish, beaten by just over a length)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.25 Stratford:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Timoteo @ 7/2 or 10/3

…in a 13-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft worth £7408 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is 2 from 2 over fences so far, including a win at this grade and one at this track. He’s by Diamond Green, whose chasers are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 8.94pts (+44.7% ROI) since the start of last year and these 20 runners (all male) are…

  • 8/10 (80%) for 18.94pts (+189.4%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) aged 6 or 7
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 10.95pts (+121.7%) on Good to Soft or “worse”
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.57pts (+61.9%) at trips of 2m3f to 2m4.5f
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.23pts (+131.8%) at Class 3
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 5.13pts (+73.3%) from LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 5.21pts (+86.8%) as 6 yr olds

His trainer, Alan King, is 20 from 68 (29.4% SR) for 18.94pts (+27.9% ROI) here at Stratford since 2013, including of note today…

  • 19/55 (34.5%) for 21.93pts (+39.9%) at Class 3/4
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 24.1pts (+45.5%) with male runners
  • 16/32 (50%) for 37.42pts (+116.9%) from those aged 5 or 6 yrs old
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 13.25pts (+88.4%) aged 6
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 2.84pts (+11.8%) at Class 3
  • 6/15 (40%) for 4.2pts (+28%) with Chasers
  • 6/10 (60%) for 12.66pts (+126.6%) with LTO winners
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 10.97pts (+91.4%) at trips of 2m3f to 2m3.5f
  • 3/5 (60%) for 1.85pts (+37%) at 2m3.5f
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.5pts (+30%) on Soft ground…

…whilst from the above, males aged 5/6 at Class 3/4 are 14 from 20 (70% SR) for 41.78pts (+208.9% ROI), including 4/4 (100%) for 10.38pts (+259.5%) this year alone!

And lastly for today, I should mention Alan King’s record with LTO winners, particularly those sent off at odds ranging from 9/4 to 10/1 in NH handicaps, as such runners are 13 from 62 (21% SR) for 23.5pts (+37.9% ROI) over the last 4 years, including…

  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 34.8pts (+74.1%) aged 5-7 yrs old
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 9.82pts (+40.9%) at Class 3
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.2pts (+101.1%) with 5-7 yr olds at Class 3
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 15pts (+55.5%) in the second half of the year
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 20pts (+90.8%) with 5-7 yr olds in the second half of the year
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 8.45pts (+140.8%) with 5-7 yr olds at Class 3 in the second half of the year

all of which has steered me towards…a 1pt win bet on Timoteo @ 7/2 or 10/3 as was offered by Bet365 (7/2 BOG) and Betfair/PP (10/3 BOG in the morning) at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.25 Stratford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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