Stat of the Day, 1st November 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

3.25 Stratford : Timoteo @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 6/1 (Held up mid-division, in touch when not much room on bend before 3 out, no impression after)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

1.20 Wetherby:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m5½f on Good to Soft worth £4159 to the winner…


Well, I’m going to keep this nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who has two wins and a place from his last five starts and comes here off the back of a win in another Class 4 Handicap Hurdle on Good to Soft ground, when he landed the spoils at Worcester 22 days ago.

He is trained by Warren Greatrex, who should probably send more hurdlers to Wetherby, where the market usually has the measure of his runners, for those sent off at odds shorter than 5/1 over hurdles here are 15 from 31 (48.4% SR) for 10.66pts at an ROI of 34.4% and although that’s not the largest sample size I’ve ever used, it does throw up several interesting and profitable angles at play today, such as…

  • 12/24 (50%) for 11.51pts (+48%) with male runners
  • 10/20 (50%) for 5.01pts (+25%) at Class 4
  • 10/18 (55.6%) for 10.32pts (+57.3%) during the final quarter of the year
  • 10/16 (62.5%) for 10.4pts (+65%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 11.86pts (+98.9%) after 16-45 days rest
  • 5/10 (50%) for 0.95pts (+9.5%) from LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 7.42pts (+106%) in handicaps
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 8.26pts (+165.2%) since the start of last year…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.10pm on Thursday, whilst Bet365 were a quarter of a point shorter and the best non-BOG offered was Hills’ 10/3. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.20 Wetherby

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Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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