Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2019

Friday’s pick was…

1.20 Wetherby : North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up, good headway chasing leaders 6th, 2nd going well after 4 out, joined for well held 2nd 3 out, blundered badly 2 out, no chance after)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

1.40 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Soft ground worth £9357 to the winner…

Why?

Very simply, an in-form yard sending out a horse proven under conditions. Sometimes it is that simple and seeing as my usual deep data digging isn’t bearing fruit right now, this stripped back approach is worth a try.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 36.6% place strike rate and a 20% win strike rate over the past fortnight (11 placers from 30, including 6 winners) and runs this 10 yr old gelding who is already 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 8.91pts (+37.1% ROI) in handicap chases, including of relevance today…

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.32pts (+84.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.32pts (+108.8%) at odds in the 2/1 to 8/1 range
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.7pts (+83.4%) wearing a visor
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.62pts (+118%) on Soft ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.61pts (+123%) here at Ayr
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12pts (+600%) on soft ground here at Ayr…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday, as the only open book on the race! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 1.40 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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