Stat of the Day, 4th November 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

1.40 Ayr : Gold Opera @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, reminders after 11th, lost touch next, left modest 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Plumpton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Soft/Heavy ground worth £6238 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding trained by Tom Lacey and I could make this piece very short by saying just back all Tom’s hurdlers for a near 20% strike rate and a near 45% return on your money, but I never advocate blind backing, so which of Tom’s hurdlers in particular should we be backing?

Personally, I’d stick to those sent off at evens to 8/1 in handicaps, for they are 40 from 134 (29.9% SR) for 81.8ppts (+61.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which there is a myriad of profitable angles you could consider. I’ve done that digging for you and here are “just” ten such angles/filters, all relevant/applicable today…

  • 35/110 (31.8%) for 78.43pts (+71.3%) within 60 days of their last run
  • 21/54 (38.9%) for 49.96pts (+92.5%) n fields of 7-9 runners
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 57.83pts (+105.1%) after 1 or 2 runs in the previous 90 days
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 46.07pts (+98%) on Soft/Heavy ground
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 6.41pts (+18.9%) with champion jockey Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 10.31pts (+39.6%) at Class 3
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 23.39pts (+137.6%) after 1 run in the previous 90 days
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.53pts (+55.4%) over a 2 mile trip
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.11pts (+264.7%) in November
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 7.18pts (+143.6%) here at Plumpton

Now I know that many of you like a composite angle you can pop into your Query Tool for future reference, so if that’s the case, I’d stick to the first three or four datasets ie how recently have they run, how often have they run recently, how many rivals are they facing and what is the ground like, but open them up slightly to give a more realistic sample size…

…ie those racing in fields of 7 to 9 runners within 60 days of their last run, having had 1-4 runs in the previous 90 days are 24 from 65 (36.9% SR) for 67.66pts (+104.1% ROI), including 7/23 (30.4%) for 25pts (+108.7% ROI) on Soft/Heavy ground…

backing up…a 1pt win bet on Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 4.50pm on Sunday, whilst Bet365 were a third of a point bigger for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 3.40 Plumpton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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