Stat of the Day, 5th November 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.40 Plumpton : Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/10 (Led, headed when not fluent 3 out, soon outpaced, rallied approaching last, kept on well under pressure, but beaten by a length and a half)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.40 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

Well, in what looks a poor contest on a poor day of racing, I’m going to try and nick a winner with a horse that seems like it is best suited to the conditions it’ll face today. A little bit like a football striker on a lean run who just needs any goal to get him going again, I’m not fussy about the ugliness of the selection and reasoning today, but I do expect a win.

So, I’ve gone with a 4 yr old gelding who was a winner over course and distance last time out and although he’s now 4lbs higher for that win, the booking of useful 7lb claimer Mark Crehan more than compensates today.

Our boy has 2 wins and 2 further places from 12 starts so far, mainly on the A/W and I think he’s the best suited here, because he has…

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 here at Kempton
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 6 over a 1 mile trip
  • 2 wins and 1 place from 6 at Class 6
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 over course and distance
  • 2 wins from 4 in 14-runner races
  • and 2 wins and a 1 place over course and distance at Class 6

I did suggest it wasn’t going to be in-depth or pretty, but the above allied to an apparent lack of real recent form amongst his rivals is enough to convince me…

to place…a 1pt win bet on Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by a handful of firms at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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