Stat of the Day, 6th November 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.40 Kempton : Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, held on close home to win by a head)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

6.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner…

Why?

Clive Cox’s 2 yr old colt is 2 from 2 so far ahead of today’s handicap/nursery debut and has already won here at Kempton, won at Class 4 and twice under today’s jockey Adam Kirby. He was last seen six weeks ago landing a 6f contest as an odds-on favourite on this track and now steps back up to Class 4 and tackles 7f for the first time.

Sent off at 5/6 LTO, 42 days ago, he is flagged up on my odds on LTO winners micro-system, which tells me that such runners racing in All-Weather handicaps, 31-60 days later are 33 from 89 (37.1% SR) for 64.3pts (+72.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and whilst that looks compelling enough to just back them blindly, here are some applicable filters to consider…

  • 28/58 (48.3%) for 51.2pts (+88.4%) at odds of 11/10 to 5/1
  • 23/56 (41.1%) for 70.9pts (+126.5%) on Polytrack
  • 18/43 (41.9%) for 49.9pts (+116%) over trips up to a mile
  • 18/36 (50%) for 38.6pts (+107.3%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 52.1pts (+157.8%) at Class 4
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 42.2pts (+127.8%) upped 1 class
  • 14/23 (54.2%) for 19.3pts (+80.6%) with 1 previous track win
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 43.8pts (+292%) here at Kempton
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.13pts (+62.6%) upped in trip by a furlong
  • 4/5 (80%) for 12.7pts (+254%) with 2 yr olds

whilst those sent off at odds of 11/10 to 5/1 over trips of 5-11 furlongs on Polytrack are 17 from 27 (63%) for 43.9pts (+162.6%).

Meanwhile, Clive Cox has an excellent record with his handicap debutants in recent years with those sent off at 10/1 or shorter winning 30 of 115 (26.1% SR) for 58.9pts (+51.2% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of note/relevance today…

  • 24/79 (30.4%) for 65.2pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 22/67 (32.8%) for 51.8pts (+77.4%) with male runners
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.6pts (+74.7%) over trips of 7f and beyond
  • 15/29 (51.7%) for 60pts (+206.8%) on the A/W
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 14.5pts (+25%) using jockey Adam Kirby
  • 12/24 (50%) for 39.9pts (+166.3%) on Polytrack
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 25pts (+73.5%) stepping up in class
  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 25.8pts (+95.6%) with 2 yr olds
  • 4/12 (33.3%)for 9.86pts (+82.2%) here at Kempton

Now you can mix and match the above to your heart’s content, but interestingly, males in 6-11 runner A/W contests over 6f and beyond are 7 from 7 (100% SR) for 31pts (+443.4% ROI), including 3/3 for 9pts over 7f, 2/2 for 6.5pts at Kempton and 1/1 for 3.6pts over course and distance…

pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (the first to show their hand) at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 6.10 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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