Tuesday’s pick was…
4.40 Kempton : Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, held on close home to win by a head)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG
…in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner…
Clive Cox’s 2 yr old colt is 2 from 2 so far ahead of today’s handicap/nursery debut and has already won here at Kempton, won at Class 4 and twice under today’s jockey Adam Kirby. He was last seen six weeks ago landing a 6f contest as an odds-on favourite on this track and now steps back up to Class 4 and tackles 7f for the first time.
Sent off at 5/6 LTO, 42 days ago, he is flagged up on my odds on LTO winners micro-system, which tells me that such runners racing in All-Weather handicaps, 31-60 days later are 33 from 89 (37.1% SR) for 64.3pts (+72.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and whilst that looks compelling enough to just back them blindly, here are some applicable filters to consider…
- 28/58 (48.3%) for 51.2pts (+88.4%) at odds of 11/10 to 5/1
- 23/56 (41.1%) for 70.9pts (+126.5%) on Polytrack
- 18/43 (41.9%) for 49.9pts (+116%) over trips up to a mile
- 18/36 (50%) for 38.6pts (+107.3%) in fields of 7-10 runners
- 14/33 (42.4%) for 52.1pts (+157.8%) at Class 4
- 14/33 (42.4%) for 42.2pts (+127.8%) upped 1 class
- 14/23 (54.2%) for 19.3pts (+80.6%) with 1 previous track win
- 8/15 (53.3%) for 43.8pts (+292%) here at Kempton
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.13pts (+62.6%) upped in trip by a furlong
- 4/5 (80%) for 12.7pts (+254%) with 2 yr olds
…whilst those sent off at odds of 11/10 to 5/1 over trips of 5-11 furlongs on Polytrack are 17 from 27 (63%) for 43.9pts (+162.6%).
Meanwhile, Clive Cox has an excellent record with his handicap debutants in recent years with those sent off at 10/1 or shorter winning 30 of 115 (26.1% SR) for 58.9pts (+51.2% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of note/relevance today…
- 24/79 (30.4%) for 65.2pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-11 runners
- 22/67 (32.8%) for 51.8pts (+77.4%) with male runners
- 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.6pts (+74.7%) over trips of 7f and beyond
- 15/29 (51.7%) for 60pts (+206.8%) on the A/W
- 14/58 (24.1%) for 14.5pts (+25%) using jockey Adam Kirby
- 12/24 (50%) for 39.9pts (+166.3%) on Polytrack
- 10/34 (29.4%) for 25pts (+73.5%) stepping up in class
- 9/27 (33.3%) for 25.8pts (+95.6%) with 2 yr olds
- 4/12 (33.3%)for 9.86pts (+82.2%) here at Kempton
Now you can mix and match the above to your heart’s content, but interestingly, males in 6-11 runner A/W contests over 6f and beyond are 7 from 7 (100% SR) for 31pts (+443.4% ROI), including 3/3 for 9pts over 7f, 2/2 for 6.5pts at Kempton and 1/1 for 3.6pts over course and distance…
…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (the first to show their hand) at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!