Stat of the Day, 7th November 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

6.10 Kempton : Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, closer on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, strong run to lead well inside final furlong, soon clear to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

6.40 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2782 to the winner…

Why?

Well, after a long awaited return to form, I was hoping for some nice data-laden selection to sweep us towards a third successive winner, but there were very few horses ticking the stats/price/likelihood of winning axis I use to finalise a pick, so here we’ve one I expect to go well which is priced attractively, but doesn’t have the big blockbuster standout stat.

Two out of three isn’t a disaster and there are enough statistical snippets/nuggets to back up the choice, starting with…

…trainer Tom Tate has sent just four runners to this venue this year, but with two winners and a further placer producing 17.8pts profit at an ROI of 445%, it’s worth looking out for the rare visitor. Of those four runs, jockey Andrew Mullen is 1 from 2 and Class 6 runners are also 1 from 2.

Next up is a quick look at the Trainer/Jockey combo, as since the start of 2017, the Tate/Mullen alliance is 13 from 83 (15.7% SR) for 53.5pts (+64.5% ROI), with a 10/36 (27.8% SR) record on the A/W yielding 72.9pts (+202.6%) including 3 winners from 9 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+249%) at Class 6 n the A/W.

And I’ll wrap today’s piece up by telling you that in 2019 so far, top-rated (OR) runners in non-handicap contests are 18 from 93 (19.4% SR) for 233.8pts (+251.3% ROI) here at Southwell, including of note/relevance today…

  • 15/79 (19%) for 240.7pts (+304.7%) over trips up to a mile
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 199.3pts (+766.5%) from female runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 206.3pts (+1085.8%) from females over 5 to 8 furlongs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 174pts (+1740%) at Class 6
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 175.2pts (+2502.6%) at Class 6 up to a mile
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 178.4pts (+8920%) from Class 6 females over 5f-1m

The above ROI figures are skewed by a 66/1 winner that paid out at 170.00 at Betfair SP, but that doesn’t invalidate the strike rates, but if you just considered those of the 93 top-rated runners who were sent off shorter than 5/1, you’d have 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) and 5.91pts (+93.5% ROI) profit…

pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 6.40 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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