Stat of the Day, 8th November 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

6.40 Southwell : Groupie @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, hampered over 1f out, not clear run an switched right inside final furlong, kept on, took 2nd post)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Fontwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG 

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…in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Soft ground worth £2989 to the winner…

Why?

Our boy might well be 11yrs old now, but shows no sign of slowing down just yet, having won over 3m1f at Wincanton 3 weeks ago, before losing little in defeat here over course and distance on similarly soft ground 6 days later, going down by just three quarters of a length.

He’s by Fruits of Love, whose chasers are 33 from 192 (17.2% SR) for 161.1pts (+83.9% ROI) since the start of 2017, all of which are male runners and include…

  • 30/171 (17.5%) for 168.9pts (+98.8%) from 7-11 yr olds
  • 28/136 (20.6%) for 183.6pts (+135%) after a break of 6-60 days
  • 27/143 (18.9%) for 109.1pts (+76.3%) in handicaps
  • 25/88 (28.4%) for 67.4pts (+76.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 17/90 (18.9%) for 178.3pts (+198.1%) during September to January
  • and 7/42 (16.7%) for 71.3pts (+169.8%) on Soft ground…

…whilst Fruits of Love’s 7 to 11 yr old handicap chasers sent off at 6/4 to 8/1 after a break of 6 to 60 days are 18/59 (30.5% SR) for 50.9pts (+86.2% ROI) since the start of 2017 : a micro worth bookmarking possibly?

He is trained by Johnny Farrelly who has done well at this sort of trip in recent years with horses deemed to at least have “a chance”.

More specifically, I’m talking about runners racing over 3 to 3.5 miles sent off at 10/1 and shorter, because they are 33/132 (25% SR) for 43.9pts (+33.3% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these represent significant improvements on Mr Farrelly’s overall form (11.2% SR & a 21.4% loss of stakes from blind backing) during that period.

And of that 33/132 dataset that interests me today…

  • 25/94 (26.6%) for 44.1pts (+46.9%) from male runners
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 37.3pts (+63.3%) at Class 5
  • 13/43 (38.2%) for 28.2pts (+83%) from Class 5 males
  • 6/12 (50%) for 12pts (+100%) in November
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.2pts (+74.5%) at Fontwell
  • 3/3 (100%) for 9.73pts (+324.3%) from Class 5 males in November
  • 2/4 (50%) for 5.12pts (+128%) from Class 5 males at Fontwell

…whilst Class 5 males at Fontwell in November are 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 7.12pts (+356% ROI), including Love The Leader‘s win here at this vey meeting a year ago…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.40 Fontwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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