Stat of the Day, 9th November 2019

Friday’s pick was…

3.40 Fontwell : Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 12/1 (Chased leaders, hampered over 1f out, not clear run an switched right inside final furlong, kept on, took 2nd post)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

1.50 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 

…in an 15-runner, Class 2, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Good ground worth £16,245 to the winner…

Why?

This 6yr old mare makes a handicap debut on her seasonal reappearance after running very well in much better races than this last season. Her hurdling record currently reads 12221 with the three defeats coming without disgrace in Class 1 contests (2 @ Listed and 1 @ Gr2) and with today’s contest in mind, it’s worth knowing that she has achieved the following so far…

  • 2 wins and a place from 4 on Good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 as favourite
  • 2 wins from 2 at 2m5.5f/2m6f
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under jockey Harry Cobden
  • 1 from 1 here at Wincanton
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance.

The afore-mentioned Harry Cobden is almost metronomic when it comes to his winning ratio, which never seems to move from a very healthy 22 to 23%, as typified by his 6 winners and 11 other placers from 26 rides over the last fortnight including 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 11pts (+84.8% ROI) on sub-7/1 hurdlers.

More long-term, Harry is 55/185 (29.7% SR) for 58.9pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Wincanton, which as a blind unfiltered stat is excellent and worth noting, but if you wanted some logical filters then from those 185 rides, he is…

  • 33/97 (34%) for 61.4pts (+63.3%) over hurdles
  • 28/112 (25%) for 64.8pts (+57.8%) in handicaps
  • and 10/51 (19.6%) for 51pts (+100%) in handicap hurdles, including 6 from 21 (38.1%) for 10.83pts (+51.6%) on horses trained by Paul Nicholls…

…whose runners are 6 from 23 over the last week including 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.92pts (+74.4%) over hurdles, whilst since the start of 2016, his record here at Wincanton is impressive at 83 from 230 (36.1% SR) backed blindly producing 35.3pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, including…

  • 44/127 (34.7%) for 32.7pts (+25.7%) over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m1f
  • 16/35 (45.7%) for 23.2pts (+66.4%) in November
  • and 11/23 (47.8%) for 22.8pts (+99.3%) over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m1f in November.

And as today is our girl’s first effort in handicap company, it’s worth knowing that Mr Nicholls’ handicap debutants are 39/184 (21.2% SR) for 78.6pts (+43% ROI) over the last six years and these are excellent numbers and include of relevance today…

  • 33/146 (22.6%) for 99.5pts (+68.6%) from November to April
  • 33/145 (22.8%) for 99.3pts (+68.9%) over hurdles
  • 14/54 (25.9%) for 34.4pts (+64.9%) with 6 yr olds
  • 13/46 (28.3%) for 41.9pts (+93.2%) from LTO winners
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.3pts (+43.5%) here at Wincanton
  • 8/25 (32%) for 34.3pts (+137.2%) over 2m5f/2m5.5f
  • and 7/35 (20%) for 16.6pts (+48.8%) with Harry Cobden in the saddle

My own saved composite angle based around the above tells me that 4 to 6 yr olds have won 30 of 119 (25.2% SR) for 115.3pts (+97.7% ROI) over hurdles in the half-year from November 1st and if you wanted to drill further down into these 119 runners, you’d get…

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 48.5pts (+173.3%) with LTO winners
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 17pts (+77.1%) here at Wincanton
  • 6/15 (40%) for 36.7 (+244.4%) over 2m5f/2m5.5f
  • and 5/21 (23.8%) for 26.3pts (+131.5%) for Harry Cobden…

all of which should be enough to justify…a 1pt win bet on Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Boylesports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.50 Wincanton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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