Stat of the Day, 11th November 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

1.50 Wincanton : Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Bit keen chasing leaders on inside, went 2nd 5th, not fluent next, lost 2nd after 3 out, weakening when mistake next)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The King’s Baby @ 3/1 BOG 

…in a 6-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9,747 to the winner…

Why?…

The horse…is an 8 yr old mare who has finished 33112 in her last five runs, so she’s clearly in good nick and these include winning both her starts over fences this year. These were over today’s 2m5f trip and also over 2m7f, so she shouldn’t be found wanting for stamina either. Overall, she has 2 wins and a place from three efforts at today’s trip.

Our trainer…is Harry Whittington, whose horses claimed 2 wins and a place from 6 attempts last week, whilst his chasers are 31 from 141 (22% SR) for 6.91pts (+4.9% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. As you know, I don’t follow anyone blindly and always seek to improve the percentages whilst reducing the number of bets placed. Any filters imposed must be logical, of course, and with today’s contest in mind, Harry’s chasers are…

• 31/118 (26.3%) for 29.91pts (+25.3%) in fields of 4-12 runners
• 26/69 (37.7%) for 24.46pts (+35.5%) at odds shorter than 5/1
• 24/82 (29.3%) for 22.85pts (+27.9%) in fields of 4-8 runners
• 11/42 (26.2%) for 29.48pts (+70.2%) in November/December
• 10/41 (24.4%) for 5.00pts (+12.2%) at Class 3
• 8/24 (33.3%) for 15.08pts (+62.9%) in November
• 8/19 (42.1%) for 22.01pts (+115.9%) after less than three weeks rest
• and 1/3 (33.3%) for 4.08pts (+136%) here at Kempton

And our jockey…Richard Johnson may never have actually ridden one of Harry’s chasers before, but the pair are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 8.73pts (+145.5% ROI) over hurdles, including 1 from 1 here at Kempton.

Richard’s own record here at Kempton is good and shows 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 7.82pts (+20% ROI) in handicap chases since the start of 2014, including of relevance today…

• 8/34 (23.5%) for 12.82pts (+37.7%) over trips of 2m2f and beyond
• 8/32 (25%) for 14.82pts (+46.3%) in fields of 5-10 runners
• 8/29 (27.6%) for 17.82pts (+61.4%) at Class 2/3
• 7/31 (22.6%) for 11.11pts (+35.9%) on horses aged 7 or older
• and 7/21 (33.3%) for 14.37pts (+68.4%) when sent off shorter than 6/1

…whilst on horses like The King’s Baby who tick all five above boxes ie aged 7+ at sub-6/1 odds in 5-10 runner, Class 2/3 handicap chases over 2m2f and beyond, Richard Johnson is 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 20.66pts (+206.6% ROI) with two of the four losers claiming runner-up finishes…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on The King’s Baby @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betway, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!