Stat of the Day, 12th November 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.15 Kempton : The King’s Baby @ 3/1 BOG PU at 13/8 (Led until hit 2nd and headed, mistake and lost 2nd 10th, mistake and behind, next, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,913 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding makes a seasonal reappearance today after almost seven months off track. He won twice last season and rounded off that campaign with a pair of placed finishes. He has made the frame on his only previous heavy ground run, he stays all day if needed (has won at 2m5f and at 3m1.5f!) and a quick look at his profile shows he has 2 wins and a place from four efforts going left handed in cheekpieces, as will be the case today.

His trainer, Lucy Wadham, doesn’t send many runners here  : just 55 in 16 years to be precise but an overall 20% strike rate suggests that it’s not a lack of success keeping here and her string away from Lingfield.

In fact, she’s 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 116pts (+644.5% ROI) here since the start of 2015 and whilst there’s a 14/1 winner that strangely paid out at 81.5 at Betfair SP skewing the P/L & ROI figures, the strike rates stand up for themselves, as they do in the following filters that are all relevant today…

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 118pts (+737.5%) from November to February
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 111pts (+853.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+702.1%) with Leighton Aspell in the saddle
  • 4/10 (40%) for 88.84pts (+888.4%) over hurdles
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 117.62 (+1960.3%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/5 (80%) for 24.34pts (+486.8%) in 9-runner contests
  • 3/10 (30%) for 35.69pts (+256.9%) in handicaps
  • 2/8 (25%) for 2.4pts (+30%) on heavy ground
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 28.2pts (402.4%) at Class 3
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 81.98pts (+1366.3%) from those rested for 6 months or longer
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 80.87pts (+1617.3%) over this course and distance

I accept that these are fairly small sample sizes, but I’m not a believer in coincidence and I think there’s enough numerical evidence…

to support…a 1pt win bet on Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, who were the only one showing a price at 4.55pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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