Stat of the Day, 13th November 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

2.50 Lingfield : Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (In touch in 4th place, pushed along before 2 out, in 4th and well held before last, left 2nd after last, no chance with winner)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday 

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,133 to the winner…


This 10 yr old gelding has two wins and three places from seven efforts last season, kicking off with a third place finish returning from 6 months off the track and then following up with a win 20 days later. His seasonal reappearance this term was 18 days ago and once again he finished third after 183 days off the track, so the precedent is there.

With today’s race in mind, his overall record includes…

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2 wins, 4 places from 12 in a visor
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 12 over hurdles
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Ayr
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 over hurdles here at Ayr
  • 1 win, 2 places from 6 on heavy ground
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 in handicap hurdles

His trainer Nick (NW) Alexander looks to have his horses coming into a nice vein of form with 3 winners and 2 placers from 12 already this month, including 3 winners and a placer from 10 in Scotland, where his hurdlers seem to go well if the market likes them.

Since the start of 2015, Nick’s hurdlers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 9/2 have won 22 of 48 (45.8% SR) at an A/E of 1.99 (ie almost twice as many winners as expected) generating level stakes profits of 59.35pts at an ROI of some 123.6%, including…

  • 19/43 (44.2%) for 54.23pts (+126.1%) from males
  • 18/29 (62.1%) for 59.19pts (+204.1%) during the 6 months from Sept-Feb
  • 13/22 (59.1%) for 41.1pts (+186.8%) at Class 4
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 19.82pts (+132.1%) on heavy ground
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 13.27pts (+78.1%) here at Ayr
  • and 5/7 (71.4%) for 20.93pts (+299%) from 10/11 yr olds

…whilst males running in Class 4 hurdles at 2/1 to 9/2 during September to February are 9 from 10 (90% SR) at an A/E of 3.95 for 35.3pts (+353% ROI), including a perfect 5/5 (100% SR & A/E of 4.2) and 19.08pts (+381.6% ROI) on heavy ground…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday  as was available from Hills at 4.55pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 1.05 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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