Stat of the Day, 14th November 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

1.05 Ayr : Calivigny @ 4/1 WON at 2/1 (Pressed leader, led 4th, pushed clear 2 out, hit last, but won easily by 12 lengths)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

12.30 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Christmas in USA @ 9/2 non-BOG until raceday 

…in an 8-runner, Class 5, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Soft ground worth £3,119 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a 7yr old gelding who entirely coincidentally is trained by yesterday’s trainer, Nick Alexander. Like yesterday’s pick, this one will need to improve upon his seasonal reappearance if he is to repeat Calivigny’s success, as he was well beaten 19 days ago on his return from a 7-month absence, just like Calivigny.

Our boy now drops back in class to Class 5, where he ended last season with finishes of 112 with those wins being his only two career successes. He has previously won on Soft ground and both of the wins were at 2m-2m1f at odds shorter than 5/1 in 8-11 runner Class 5 handicap hurdle contests wearing both a visor and a tongue tie. When all of those winning conditions have been in place for him, he has finished 211, so a return to form wouldn’t be too unexpected.

And now back to our trainer, Nick Alexander. Different race conditions to yesterday, so a different set of stats after a reminder that he is a man in form.

Four winners and three placers from sixteen this month so far including a 3 from 7 record over hurdles, where more generally/longer-term he has enjoyed success, especially over trips of 2m-3m2f at odds ranging from 6/5 to 10/1, where his runners are 47/228 (20.6% SR) for 54.7pts (+24% ROI) since the start of 2015, including…

  • 40/189 (21.2%) for 56.5pts (+29.9%) with 4-9 yr olds
  • 37/187 (19.8%) for 48.3pts (+25.8%) in handicaps
  • 29/112 (25.9%) for 50.2pts (+44.8%) in 6-9 runner contests
  • 27/133 (20.3%) for 41.2pts (+31%) were unplaced LTO
  • 22/92 (23.9%) for 49.7pts (+54.1%) after a break of 6-25 days
  • 18/62 (29%) for 23.3pts (+37.5%) over trips of 2m-2m2f
  • 16/57 (28.1%) for 48.54pts (+85.2%) in November/December
  • 14/67 (20.9%) for 17.5pts (+26.1%) at Class 5
  • 12/40 (30%) for 17.1pts (+42.7%) with those top-rated (OR) in the race
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 8pts (+16.3%) from those dropping down a class
  • 10/37 (27%) for 16.7pts (+45.2%) on their 2nd run of the season
  • 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.2pts (+61.8%) in November
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 4.3pts (+430%) using today’s jockey, Bruce Lynn

…whilst 4-9 yr olds in 6-9 runner hcp hurdles after 6-25 days rest are 11 from 29 (37.9% SR) for 28.7pts (+98.9% ROI) including 3 from 4 (75%) for 5.41pts (+135.3%) over 2m to 2m1f…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Christmas in USA @ 9/2 non-BOG until raceday  as was available from Hills at 4.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 12.30 Sedgefield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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