Stat of the Day, 15th November 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

12.30 Sedgefield : Christmas in USA @ 9/2 WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, led before 2nd, not fluent next, went clear before 4 out until next, went clear again before last, winning readily by 8 lengths)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday

…in a 6-runner (was 9!), Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2mf on Soft ground worth £3,769 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old mare is one from two at today’s trip and is trained by Tim Vaughan, who has been profitable to follow blindly here at Southwell over recent years. In fact since the start of 2015, his runners are 13 from 95 (13.7% SR) here, generating 7.6pts profit at an ROI of 8%, which is decent enough without filtering out any you wouldn’t normally fancy.

If you did start to filter (as I always do!), you could consider the following ten angles, which are all logical, profitable, relevant and applicable today…

  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 26.4pts (+41.3%) in handicaps (and you could stop here if you wanted!)
  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 34.7pts (+89%) at ISP odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 9/60 (15%) for 16.3pts (+27.2%) from 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 19.8pts (+35.4%) over hurdles
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 16.8pts (+39.2%) at Class 4
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 30.2pts (+79.5%) in handicap hurdle contests
  • 8/32 (25%) for 37.6pts (+117.5%) after 22-56 days off track
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 24.1pts (+89.3%) over this 2mf course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.5pts (+196.7%) in 6-runner races
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.9pts (+143.3%) with 1 previous distance win…

…whilst Class 3/4 hcp hurdlers at 7/4 to 8/1 are 4/8 (50% SR) for 25.43pts (+317.9% ROI), including two from three over this 2mf course and distance…

pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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