Stat of the Day, 16th November 2019

Friday’s pick was…

3.45 Southwell : Oriental Cross @ 6/1 (4.8/1 after a 20p R4!) WON at 9/2 (Tracked leaders on outside, led going well approaching 2 out, went clear before last, won easily by 7 lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now

…in the 14-runner, British Stallion Studs EBF Gillies Fillies Stakes Listed Race for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £21,266 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has won three of her last 5 starts including landing a Listed contest on this very track last time out, 16 days ago. That was her first run at this level, so she will hope to maintain that 100% record. She’s 1 from 2 at this venue, 3 from 6 for trainer John Gosden and also 3 from 6 when rested for 2 to 6 weeks.

She’ll be ridden by Frankie Dettori, who just has a fantastic record in Listed races, winning 50 of 191 (26.2% SR) for 69.7pts (+36.5% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. Trust me, guys, those are astounding numbers, but we can make them look better, surely?

Of course we can. Amongst that 50/191 record and of relevance today there are…

  • 37/112 (33%) for 84.3pts (+75.3%) after 16 to 120 days off track
  • 29/105 (27.6%) for 14.4pts (+13.7%) for trainer John Gosden
  • 29/81 (35.8%) for 26.5pts (+32.7%) on LTO winners
  • 26/91 (28.6%) for 64.9pts (+71.4%) on female runners
  • and 23/78 (29.5%) for 48.9pts (62.7%) in female only races…

…whilst on John Gosden’s females who won LTO 16-120 days earlier, Frankie is 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 15.6pts (+91.8% ROI).

And whilst Frankie’s clearly the man for the job, trainer John Gosden is no slouch around these parts either, his horses have won 28 of 80 (35% SR) for 36.7pts (+45.9% ROI) on the Polytrack here at Lingfield since the start of 2018, including…

  • 24/66 (36.4%) for 40.1pts (+60.8%) in non-handicaps
  • 22/65 (33.9%) for 38.9pts (+59.8%) from October to April
  • 22/53 (41.5%) for 43.2pts (+81.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 34.8pts (+108.8%) over this 1m2f C&D
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 10.1pts (+77.3%) at Class 1
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 11.78pts (+117.8%) in Listed contests…

…whilst Mr G’s 3 yr old non-handicappers are 12 from 32 (37.5% SR) for 40.8pts (+127.4% ROI) during October to April, giving us 112% of the original profit from just 40% of the bets!

steering us towards…a 1pt win bet on Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now as was available from Hills (4/1) & generally at 7/2 at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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