Stat of the Day, 19th November 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.30 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Led until 1st, prominent, led 5th, headed next, ridden after 3 out, stayed on same pace last and beaten by 2.25 lengths)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Kwela @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

This 3yr old filly comes here on top of her game, aiming to complete a hat-trick of wins, all at this venue in a little over 8 weeks. She landed a Class 5 contest over 6f back in September 57 days ago before winning over this class and trip 30 days later (ie 27 days ago), so she’s on familiar territory after a similar rest period. 5lb claimer Georgia Dobie was in the saddle on both occasions, so it’s no surprise to see her retain the ride today.

Amongst this fillies career stats are some reasons for further optimism, as she has…

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 in handicaps (2+2 from 4 on A/W)
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 under Georgina Dobie (2+2 from 5 on A/W)
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 6 in cheekpieces (2+1 from 3 on A/W)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 6 over 7f (1+1 from 2 on A/W)
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 on the A/W (all on Polytrack)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 here at Kempton
  • she won her only previous effort over course and distance (LTO, of course)

She is trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, whose LTO winners sent off at Evens to 15/2 in handicaps are 19 from 80 (23.75% SR) for 7.72pts (+9.65% ROI) since the start of 2017, including…

  • 18/68 (26.4%) for 17.22pts (+25.3%) after 11-45 days off track
  • 11/44 (25%) for 9.76pts (+22.2%) over the same trip as LTO
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 10.76pts (+67.2%) over the same course and distance as LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.15pts (+62.7%) on the A/W (all on Polytrack)
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.98pts (+76.8%) in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.61pts (+82.6%) during the final quarter of the year
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.32pts (+38.6%) with Georgina Dobie in the saddle
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 5.3pts (+106%) with a jockey claiming 5lbs

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Kwela @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, 888Sport & SkyBet at 6.20pm on Monday, whilst to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.50 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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