Stat of the Day, 20th November 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

2.50 Kempton : Kwela @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Keen in touch, pushed along and headway on outer 2f out, ran on final furlong, went 2nd close home and beaten by half a length. I can’t help but think we might have been counting our money had she got going a little earlier)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

7.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sir Prize @ 5/1 non-BOG until raceday

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

Well, I’m keeping it simple and hoping for one more good performance from a horse and a trainer/jockey combo that have had a good 2019 so far…

Our horse is a 4 yr old gelding with 6 top three finishes (including 3 winners) from 7 starts this year and will fare better today dropping back in trip to a mile and a half where he was a runner-up, only beaten by a nose over this class, course and distance two starts ago.

To date, his handicap record includes the following of relevance today…

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 here at Kempton
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 over course and distance
  • 2 wins from 3 carrying 9st 2lbs

The trainer/jockey combo is Dean Ivory & Joey Haynes and they are 6 from 40 (15% SR) for 38.8pts (+97.1% ROI) in handicaps this year, including of note here…

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 59.6pts (+496.3%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/18 (22.2%) for 23.7pts (+131.6%) on the A/W
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 58pts (+386.7%) with horses rested for 3-8 weeks
  • 3/6 (50%) for 59.7pts (+995.5%) with 4yr old horses rested for 3-8 weeks
  • 3/6 (50%) for 28.4pts (+473.8%) with 4 yr olds on the A/W
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 28.5pts (+950%) with 4yr olds on the A/W returning from 3-8 weeks off the track…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Sir Prize @ 5/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Tuesday. If you think it might drift, you can sacrifice half a point to go BOG with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.10 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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