Stat of the Day, 21st November 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

7.10 Kempton : Sir Prize @ 5/1 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, driven and headway to challenge on inside over 1f out, soon ridden, stayed on and every chance throughout final furlong, just held off by a neck : our second defeat to jockey Hollie Doyle in as many days!)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.05 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Harry’s Bar @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £7,876 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a runner-up last time out, when beaten by just three quarters of a length behind a 99-rated runner in a Class 2 contest at Chelmsford over 6f almost 8 weeks ago. That winner has since stepped up to Listed company, whilst our boy now drops back in trip and class to run here off a mark of 91, suggesting that similar run to LTO should be more than enough.

That, of course, is supposition and I prefer to deal with facts, such as our runner’s record on the A/W where he has never been out of the first three home in seven starts, including three wins and in those 7 A/W runs, he is…

  • 3/6 after a break of 3-8 weeks
  • 3/5 at odds of Evens to 5/1
  • 3/5 as favourite
  • 3/4 in handicaps
  • 3/4 over the minimum 5f trip
  • 1/2 at Class 3
  • and 1/1 on tapeta

He is trained by James Fanshawe, whose runners are 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 19.8pts (+48.4% ROI) on this track when sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 8/1, including…

  • 10/32 (31.3%) for 24.5pts (+76.6%) at 16-60 dslr
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 11.2pts (+48.7%) in handicaps
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 20.1pts (+91.2%) in 8-13 runner contests
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.7pts (+185.1%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.6pts (+129.1%) with class droppers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.5pts (+163.9%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 11.7pts (+194.5%) this year

And with regards to those dropping in class, James’ A/W handicappers dropping down a grade are 19/76 (25% SR) for 37.5pts (+49.4% ROI), including the following of relevance today…

  • 15/41 (36.6%) for 35.2pts (+85.8%) after 3-8 weeks off the track
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 19.8pts (+54.9%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 32.8pts (+117%) with 4 yr olds
  • 8/25 (32%) for 21pts (+84%) on October/November
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.5pts (+111.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.7pts (+111.2%) here at Newcastle…

…whilst those sent off at 4/1 and shorter after 3-8 weeks rest are 12 from 22 (54.6% SR) for 27.1pts (+123% ROI) and these include..

  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.41pts (+173.5%) on Tapeta
  • 3/4 (75%) for 8.67pts (+216.8%) at Newcastle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.53pts (+151%) this year
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.53pts (+276.5%) on Tapeta this year
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.79pts (+279%) here on Newcastle’s Tapeta this year

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Harry’s Bar @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & 888Sport at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.05 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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