Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

4.05 Newcastle : Harry’s Bar @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (In touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on towards finish, but beaten by half a length)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Be Proud @ 5/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?…

In a week where we’re looking for a winner after repeatedly coming close, it’s perhaps fitting that I’ve sided with this 3 yr old gelding that has just one win in his last eight starts, but has been the runner-up in five of the seven losing runs, the latest here over course and distance three weeks ago, when caught on the line and beaten by a short head.

I think something may have spooked him that day, as he looked the winner all over before swerving almost violently in the closing strides, throwing away the race in the process. He’d not done that before, so I’m assuming it doesn’t happen here today, where a repeat of the actual run from last time would be enough to land this contest, thus repeating his 5 length course and distance success from eight weeks ago.

Despite seeming like a perennial bridesmaid, his form lines do give us some hope here, as they include the following results…

• 41522 here on the A/W at Newcastle
• 4122 over 5f
• 4122 over course and distance
• 622 under jockey Ben Robinson
• and 22 in Class 5 contests worth less than £3,500 to the winner

His trainer, Jim Goldie, has done really well at this venue over the last couple of years, with his handicappers winning 30 of 160 (18.75% SR) for 50.4pts (+31.5% ROI) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter on the tapeta here over the last two years, including..

• 24/116 (20.7%) for 63.7pts (+54.9%) in fields of 9-14 runners
• 20/98 (20.4%) for 51.3pts (+52.3%) after a break of 2 to 8 weeks
• 13/58 (22.4%) for 19.3pts (+33.3%) over this 5f course and distance
• 10/39 (25.6%) for 46.8pts (+120%) during November & December
• 9/42 (21.4%) for 11.3pts (+26.9%) at Class 5
• 9/35 (25.7%) for 28.1pts (+80.3%) with 1 previous track win
• 7/22 (31.8%) for 17.5pts (+79.7%) from 3 yr olds
• and 6/25 (24%) for 21.8pts (+87%) in November…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Be Proud @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!