Sat TV Trends: 23rd Nov 2019

More excellent jumping action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday with the ITV cameras heading to both tracks. The Betfair Chase is the highlight from Haydock at 3.00, while the main event at Ascot is the Christy 1965 Chase – As always, we are on hand with all the trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – Christy 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV

15/16 – Aged 8 or younger
13/16 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
13/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
11/16 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
11/16 – Ran at Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
10/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
9/16 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
7/16 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
7/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Aged 5 years-old
3/16 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/16 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/16 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Politologue won the race in 2018
Top Notch won the race in 2017

Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor

 2.40 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

17/17 – Priced 7/2 or less
15/17 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
14/17 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
14/17 – Won by and Irish (10) or French (3) bred horse
13/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Won their latest race
10/17 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
10/17 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
10/17 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
10/17 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
10/17 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
6/17 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
5/17 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4^th or better, Faugheen won both in 2014-15)
5/16 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
4/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/17 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 13 winners were Irish-trained
If The Cap Fits won the race in 2018
Lil Rockerfeller won the race in 2017
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

3.20 – Gerard Bertrand Hurst Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV

12/13 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
12/13 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
11/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/13 – Rated 142 or higher
7/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/13 – Ran at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Ascot before
6/13 – Placed favourites
4/13 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Aged 6 years-old
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by Gary Moore
Caid du Lin won the race in 2018

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f ITV

8 previous runnings
7/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Had won between 1-2 times before
6/8 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
6/8 – Irish bred
6/8 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
6/8 – Had won over at least 2m2f before
6/8 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/8 – Ridden by a conditional claiming jockey
2/8 – Winning favourites
Black Mischief won the race in 2018
Limited Reserve won the race in 2017

2.25 – Betfair Best Odds On ITV Races Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ½f ITV

13/14– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
13/14 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
12/14 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/14 – Rated between 132 and 143
9/14 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019)
8/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Placed favourites
6/14 – French bred
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/14 – Trained by David Pipe
2/14 – Trained by Nick Williams
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017

3.00 – Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m 1 1/2f ITV

12/14 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
11/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/14 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (8) bred horse
11/14 – Placed in the top three in their last race
11/14 – Won a Grade One chase previously
10/14 – Raced at Haydock previously
10/14 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
9/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Aged 8 or older
7/14 – Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
7/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
7/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won their latest race
4/14 – Raced at Aintree last time out
The average winning price in the last 14 runnings is 11/2
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has won the prize in 2010, 2017 and 2018
Bristol De Mai has won the last two runnings.

3.40 – Better Value On The Betair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 3m 4 1/2f ITV

8/8 – Aged 8 or younger
7/8 – Aged between 7-8 years-old
7/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Carried 11st 9lbs or more
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/8 – Won between 1-2 times fences
6/8 – Rated between 129-135
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
2/8 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/8 – Winning favourites