Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.30 Newcastle : Be Proud @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway halfway, chased leaders over 1f out, stayed on same pace closing stages)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.40 Ascot:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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If The Cap Fits @ 7/2 BOG

…in the 6-runner, Grade 2, Coral (aka Ascot) Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft ground worth £56,950 to the winner…


This 7 yr old gelding makes his seasonal reappearance to defend this title he won last year and comes here straight from a 231 day lay-off since landing the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle. He has 5 wins and 2 places from 8 starts over hurdles and these include…

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 at Class 1
  • 2 from 2 on soft ground
  • 1 from 1 here at Ascot
  • 1 from 1 with jockey Sean Bowen
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (this race last year)

He is trained by Harry Fry, whose LTO winners are 45 from 98 (45.9% SR) for 37.9pts (+38.6% ROI) when sent off at 4/1 or shorter since the start of 2017, with the following of relevance today…

  • 42/83 (50.6%) for 37.1pts (+44.7%) with male runners
  • 40/91 (44%) for 31.6pts (+34.7%) in NH contests
  • 31/59 (52.5%) for 35pts (+59.4%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
  • 26/42 (61.9%) for 34.4pts (+81.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 21/52 (40.4%) for 9.64pts (+18.5%) over hurdles
  • 13/22 (59.1%) for 16.77pts (+76.2%) during October/November
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 4.8pts (+80%) here at Ascot…

…whilst NH males over 2m to 2m5f are 27 from 47 (57.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+58.5% ROI).

And more longer-term, Harry Fry’s NH runners sent off at 7/1 and shorter here at Ascot are 17 from 43 (39.5% SR) for 28.5pts (+66.3% ROI) since the start of 2014 and they include…

  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 30.75pts (+113.9%) over hurdles
  • 9/15 (60%) for 17.7pts (+118%) in November
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 13.23pts (+73.5%) on Soft ground
  • 8/16 (50%) for 19.32pts (+120.8%) with LTO winners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 6pts (+37.5%) at Class 1
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 12.12pts (+93.2%) over 2m3f-2m3.5f
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 15.53pts (+194.1%) since the start of last year
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 7.73pts (+110.4%) for prize money of £40k-£75k
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 16.13pts (+268.8%) with 7 yr olds
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 6.67pts (+83.4%) at Grade 2…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on If The Cap Fits @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by a handful of firms at 6.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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