Stat of the Day, 25th November 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

2.40 Ascot : If The Cap Fits @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1  (In touch, headway 5 out, every chance after 3 out, led last, hard ridden, stayed on gamely to win by half a length)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.35 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Doctor Dex @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner (was 12!), Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4.5f on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £8,447 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding won two of four starts in the first fourteen weeks of the year, before then going back to his box for seven months. He then reappeared 23 days ago to make a successful chasing debut, comfortably landing a Class 3 contest at Ascot and showing little (if any) signs of rustiness. Jonathan Burke was in the saddle that day and he retains the ride here.

To date, the horse’s record includes the following of relevance/interest today…

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 on Good/Good to Soft
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 on Good
  • 3 wins from 5 in 2019
  • 3 wins from 5 under jockey Jonathan Burke
  • 2 wins from 3 as favourite
  • 1 from 1 over fences (from LTO)
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 3 (also from LTO)

He is trained by Tom George, who doesn’t bring many handicap chasers on the 100-mile trip East to this venue from his base in Stroud, Gloucestershire, but those that have made the relatively short journey have won 15 of 69 (21.7% SR) for 28.1pts (+40.8% ROI) profit since 2012 and these figures include…

  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 33.47pts (+71.2%) at odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 42.25pts (+93.9%) within two months of their last run
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 40.68pts (+104.3%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 9/40 (22.5%) for 20.69pts (+51.7%) since 2016
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 22.51pts (+173.2%) with favourites (outright, joint or co-favs)
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 30.6pts (+138.9%) over this 2m4.5f course and distance
  • 6/20 (30%) for 33.25pts (+166.25%) from November to January inclusive
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 2.43pts (+16.2%) from LTO winners

…whilst based upon the above, 6-9 yr olds sent off at 7/4 to 8/1 within 45 days of their last run are 11 from 21 (52.4% SR) for 44.24pts (+210.7% ROI), ie 157% of the original profit from just 30% of the bets, including…

  • 6/13 (43.2%) for 21.16pts (+162.8%) since 2016
  • 6/8 (75%) for 17.63pts (+220.3%) from favs
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.22pts (+170.3%) with favs since 2016…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Doctor Dex @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Hills & Paddy Power at 7.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.35 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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