Stat of the Day, 26th November 2019

Monday’s pick was…

2.35 Kempton : Doctor Dex @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 13/8  (Held up towards rear, closer before 8th, went 2nd approaching 3 out, every chance when mistake last, weakened on run-in)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Sedgefield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Tonto’s Spirit @ 7/2 non-BOG until midnight

…in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £7,343to the winner…

Why?

Here we have an in-form 7 yr old gelding who has already clocked up 3 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts over fences and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Cartmel in August and then here over course and distance 8 weeks ago. His further suitability for the task ahead is highlighted by the following from his overall career record…

  • 10 wins, 4 places from 28 going left handed (3w, 1pl from 5 over fences)
  • 10 wins, 4 places from 18 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (3+1/4 chasing)
  • 7 wins, 1 place from 13 at 2m½f to 2m1½f  (3+1/5)
  • 5 wins, 2 places from 12 in fields of 1-7 runners (3+2/6)
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 11 on Soft ground (1/2)
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 7 for trainer Dianne Sayer (3+1/5)
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 7 for jockey Conor O’Farrell (3+2/6)
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from 4 here at Sedgefield (1/1)

Moreover, trainer Dianne Sayer’s LTO winners are 10 from 34 (29.4% SR) for 10.67pts (+31.4% ROI) since the start of 2018 and these include…

  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.01pts (+162.6%) on Soft
  • 3/6 (50%) for 1.59pts (+26.5%) here at Sedgefield
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 0.65pts (+16.3%) on soft ground here at Sedgefield.

Aside from the earlier career stats about the horse, I found that he seems to run equally well with or without the hood that he has often worn, winning 7 of 23 (30.4%) wearing the hood and 5 of 16 (31.25%) without. When winning LTO, he was wearing the hood yet today he doesn’t, which got me thinking about whether such changes in approach after a win was sensible or not and interestingly, I found that…

…in the UK since the start of 2014, horses wearing no headgear after winning in a hood last time out are 37 from 154 (24% SR) for 46.54pts (+30.2% ROI) backed blindly, which is a nice little angle to keep an eye on and these numbers include of note/relevance today…

  • 28/99 (28.3%) for 28.08pts (+58.7%) with 4-8 yr olds
  • 28/97 (28.9%) for 50pts (+51.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 7/1
  • 26/96 (27.1%) for 31.4pts (+32.7%) after a break of 11-60 days
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 7.38pts (+12.7%) in NH contests
  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 27.65pts (+60.1%) stepped up 1 class
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 12.32pts (+37.3%) at Class 3
  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 6.25pts (+23.2%) in Novice contests
  • and 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.28pts (+12%) over fences

…whilst horses fulfilling each of the first three categories (age, odds & dslr) are 15 from 38 (39.5% SR) for 83.8% ROI)…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Tonto’s Spirit @ 7/2 non-BOG until midnight as was offered by Hills at 5.15pm on Monday. Those wanting  the BOG reassurance will need to sacrifice half a point with Bet365 and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 2.50 Sedgefield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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