Stat of the Day, 27th November 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

2.50 Sedgefield : Tonto’s Spirit @ 7/2 2nd at 6/1 (Prominent until 2nd, chased leaders, went 2nd before 2 out, no impression on winner, kept on)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap Chase for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a course winner here LTO, 8 days ago when making all and staying on well to defeat our SotD pick, Kwela, by half a length over 7 furlongs at Class 4. The way he stayed on suggests an extra furlong should be fine and his quest is aided by a drop in class today.

He does however, carry a 5lb penalty for that win, but 3 of the extra 5 are accounted for by the booking of jockey Thomas Greatrex for the ride.

Trainer David Loughnane has been amongst the winners lately, landing 3 of 10 (30% SR) for 54.75pts (+547.5% ROI) over the last 10 days, including two winners from three here at Kempton, where his runners are 7 from 45 (15.6% SR) for 100.45pts (+223.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, with the following of note today…

  • 7/39 (17.9%) for 106.45pts (+272.9%) after 6-45 days off track
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 107.45pts (+282.8%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 104.3pts (+359.7%) from males
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 25.2pts (+193.9%) at odds of 9/2 to 10/1
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 47.78pts (+796.3%) in November…

…whilst males racing over 6f to 1m after 6 to 45 days rest are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 112.3pts (+534.8% ROI), including 3/7 (42.9%) for 19.07pts (+272.4%) at 9/2 to 8/1, 2/5 (40%) for 48.78pts (+975.6%) in November and 1 from 1 with all the above in place.

Obviously Stringybark Creek ticks all those above boxes too and his suitability for today’s task is also hopefully highlighted by looking at his career stats of 10 wins from 56 (5/19 on A/W) that include of relevance today…

  • 10/37 in fields of 9-14 runners (inc 5/17 on A/W)
  • 9/47 in handicaps (4/16 on A/W)
  • 8/31 at the age of 4 & 5 (3/12 on A/W)
  • 8/28 at 7 to 8.5 furlongs (3/12 on A/W)
  • 6/24 for David Loughnane (1/6 on A/W)
  • 6/14 at odds of 5/1 to 9/1 (2/5 on A/W)
  • 5/14 going right handed (2/5 on A/W)
  • 4/10 on Polytrack (obviously all on A/W)
  • 3/9 in Class 5 contests worth more than £3.5k (N/A on A/W)
  • 2/5 here at Kempton (all on A/W)
  • 2/3 during November/December (all on A/W)
  • and 1 from 1 in November (LTO on A/W)

…whilst based around those subsets above, Stringybark Creek is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 26.5pts (+220.8% ROI) when sent off at 11/4 to 17/2 in 9-14 runner handicaps over 7 to 9.5 furlongs since the start of 2018

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & also Hills (although the latter was non-BOG until midnight) with plenty of 7/1 available elsewhere at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 5.10 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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