Stat of the Day, 28th November 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

5.10 Kempton : Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG 5th at 8/1 (Raced wide towards rear, pushed along and headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, never nearer)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

1.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Colonel Whitehead @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Nursery Handicap for 2yo over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner…


This colt has won two of his last four starts, including last time out a week ago in a Class 4 contest over this 5f trip up at Newcastle under today’s jockey Ellie MacKenzie, who again claims 7lbs.

The colt is 2 from 3 on the A/W so far, including 2/2 at 5f, 2/2 with Miss Mackenzie in the saddle, 1/2 on Polytrack and 1/1 going left handed. He actually lost his only previous Class 5 contest, but is 2 from 2 at Class 4!

Trainer Heather Main’s horses are 2 from 6 over the past week, whilst more generally she has had 6 winners from 22 (27.3% SR) for 94.64pts (+430.2% ROI) with Ellie MacKenzie in the hotseat, amongst which there are three winners from ten (30%) for 38.92pts (+389.2%) on the All-Weather.

Heather’s record with handicappers dropping down a class on the Flat/AW shows 14 winners from 69 (20.3% SR) for 171.2pts (+248.2% ROI) over the past four years, including…

  • 13/47 (27.7%) for 181.8pts (+386.8%) from June to November
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 73.5pts (+216.1%) from those rested for less than three weeks
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 66pts (+194.1%) on the A/W
  • 4/16 (25%) for 35.8pts (+224$) at Class 5
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 23.2pts (+210.9%) here at Lingfield
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 37.2pts (+619.9%) under Ellie MacKenzie

And over the last five years, when Heather Main’s list of daily runners is a sole handicapper, that horse has won 24 of 179 (13.4% SR) for 87.8pts (+49% ROI) profit, with the following of relevance/note today…

  • 18/122 (14.8%) for 64.2pts (+52.6%) had run in the previous 30 days
  • 14/89 (15.7%) for 28.8pts (+32.4%) on the A/W
  • 10/67 (14.9%) for 14.2pts (+21.2%) at Class 5
  • 6/35 (17.1%) for 80pts (+228.5%) dropping down a class
  • and 6/29 (20.7%) for 27.4pts (+94.4%) here at Lingfield…

…whilst those running on the A/W within 30 days of their last run are 11 from 60 (18.3% SR) for 35.8pts (+59.7% ROI), including 5/26 (19.2%) at Class 5, 3/14 (21.4%) at Lingfield, 3/11 (27.3%) dropping down a class and 3/11 (27.3%) in Class 5 contests here at Lingfield…

all pointing towards…a 1pt win bet on Colonel Whitehead @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 5.20pm on Wednesday, although Bet365 were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.20 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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