Stat of the Day, 30th November 2019

Fridays pick was…

3.10 Southwell : Queen Of Kalahari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader, joined leader over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,170 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding lost nothing (apart from the win & resultant prize money, of course) when nailed on the line and beaten by a nose at Chelmsford five days ago. A subsequent drop of 1lb in the ratings, the booking of an in-form 7lb claimer and a 1f drop in trip should all help this former course and distance winner see the trip out better today.

Jockey Grace McEntee is, as I intimated, riding well with 3 winners and 2 placers from 10 rides over the past 10 days, so she’ll be keen to add to that tally today. Most of her rides are for her father, Phil and it’s his record with quickly turned out placers that caught my eye for today’s pick, as…

…since the start of 2016, Phil McEntee’s handicappers sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 12/1 (my default starting point), 3 to 14 days after a top 3 finish are 25 from 129 (23.2% SR) for 54.8pts (+43.9% ROI) and these include of note/relevance today…

  • 22/73 (30.1%) for 73.8pts (+101.1%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 17/70 (24.3%) for 23.7pts (+33.9%) at Class 6
  • 16/73 (21.9%) for 40.7pts (+55.8%) in 2018/19
  • 13/49 (26.5%) for 34.2pts (+69.8%) over 7 furlongs
  • 12/54 (22.2%) for 19.4pts (+35.9%) were beaten by 2 lengths or less
  • and 4/17 (23.5%) for 14pts (+82.4%) here at Lingfield

…whilst those racing over 6/7 furlongs in 9-13 runner Class 6 contests are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 41.4pts (+172.6% ROI) since the start of 2018, including 4/6 (66.6%) for 19.2pts (+320.2%) beaten by less than a length LTO and 2/4 (50%) for 10.32pts (+258%) here at Lingfield…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Pearl Spectre@ 11/4 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & Hills (latter is BOG from midnight) at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.25 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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