Saturday’s pick was…
3.25 Lingfield : Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, no extra)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG
…in a 5-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner…
Probably about the bottom end of the odds range I’m comfortable with, but (a) there should still be some value about the price and (b) I think our boy has more than a 28.5% chance of winning here, but what of him?
Well, he’s a 5 yr old gelding who in 10 starts this year has 3 wins, 4 runner-up finishes and one other place and has been the runner-up in each of his last three starts (more on that shortly). To date, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 15 on the All-Weather and these include of relevance today…
- 3 wins, 3 places from 13 in handicaps
- 3+3 from 12 going left handed
- 3+2 from 9 on Standard going
- 3+3 from 8 this year
- 3+2 from 9 after 10-20 days off track
- 3 from 5 here at Wolverhampton
- 3 from 4 at 1m3f-1m4f
- 2+1 from 3 at odds shorter than 7/2
- 2+1 from 3 as favourite
- and 2 from 3 at 1m4f
His trainer, Grant Tuer, is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 11.34pts (+94.5% ROI) in handicaps on this this track over the last 12 months, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 16.34pts (+233.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which there are 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 10.4pts (+260%) over this 1m4f course and distance.
And now back to the horse’s recent 222 form line, which is more common than you’d possibly think, since…in UK Flat/AW Class 3-5 handicaps at odds of 11/1 and shorter, those with a 222 form line who were beaten by less than 15 lengths LTO in the previous 2 months are 97 from 388 (25% SR) for 101.1pts (+26.1% ROI) since 2013, with the following applicable today…
- 65/174 (37.4%) for 58.8pts (+33.8%) at odds of 6/5 to 7/2
- 20/59 (33.9%) for 49.6pts (+84%) from 5 yr olds
- 15/46 (32.6%) for 37.9pts (+82.4%) at 1m3f-1m4f
…whilst if you wanted a micro based around the above with near 40% strike rates and ROI, then 2-8 yr olds over 5f to 1m4f at 6/5 to 7/2 are 58/149 (38.9% SR) for 58.5pts (+39.3% ROI)…
…pointing towardss…a 1pt win bet on Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG as was offered in a handful of places at 5.00pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (BOG from midnight) were a quarter point longer for those not expecting a drift. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!