Stat of the Day, 4th December 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.15 Lingfield : Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Led until 5th, lost place 5 out, well beaten before 3 out )

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a runner-up at Lingfield just 4 days ago and gets the opportunity to go one better off the same mark today. He had the worst of the draw at the weekend, but has a more favourable stall today and is expected to go well again.

Trainer Lee Carter’s horses are in great form, all eight runners over the last fortnight have made the frame, with two of them taking Gold, including a win and a place from two efforts here at Kempton.

His record with quick returners is decent, especially in similar circumstances to today, as…

since the start of 2016, Lee Carter’s Class 6 A/W handicappers sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 16/1 after less than three weeks rest are 11 from 49 (22.5% SR) for 77.5pts (+158.1% ROI) and these include of relevance today…

  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 76.3pts (+200.8%) from male runners
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+281.1%) from 5-9 yr olds

…whilst 5-9 yr old males are 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) for 86.3pts (+308.3% ROI) and you could stop there and back all of them, but if you wanted to drill down further…

  • 5 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 41.7pts (+347.7%)
  • LTO runners-up are 5/8 (62.5%) for 47.4pts (+592.4%)
  • over 7f, it’s 3/9 (33.3%) for 33.8pts (+375.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 36.8pts (+613%) over 7 furlongs
  • LTO runners-up are 3/5 (60%) for 37.8pts (+756%) over 7f
  • 5yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) after finishing second LTO
  • and 5yr old, LTO runners-up are also 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) over a 7f trip…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 and SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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