Stat of the Day, 5th December 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

3.40 Kempton : Maazel @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 5/4 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run over 1f out, unable to challenge, no impression inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Rock Sound @ 10/3

…in a 13-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner…


This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding makes just his seventh start today, but has won 2 of his previous six, including last time out a month ago over course and distance in another big field (14 ran) hcp, which was his first run in the UK, first run on an artificial surface and also his yard debut for Declan Carroll, whose runners are 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 9.5pts (+52.7% ROI) on the A/W over the last 30 days, including 4 from 10 (40%) for 17.5pts (+175%) here at Southwell.

Included amongst that recent run of good form at this venue are the following of relevance today…

  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) from males
  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) at sub-12/1 odds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 18.22pts (+227.7%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 22.22pts (+555.5%) on 13/14 runner contests…

…whilst sub-12/1 male handicappers are 3 from 3 9100% SR) for 23.22pts (+773.9% ROI) in 13/14 runner fields…

And this recent run isn’t a flash in the pan either, as Declan’s runners have fared well here at Southwell for a number of years now, clocking up 21 wins from 112 (18.75% SR) in handicaps since the start of 2016, generating 40.6pts profit at a healthy 36.2% return, including of note here…

  • 21/105 (20%) for 47.6pts (+45.3%) at trips of 5f to 1m
  • 19/100 (19%) for 39.6pts (+39.6%) in fields of 8-14 runners
  • 18/64 (28.1%) for 38.9pts (+60.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 17/82 (20.7%) for 41.3pts (+50.4%) at the same trip or dropped 1f from LTO
  • 13/63 (20.6%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%) during the 3 months from November to January…

…whilst if you wanted to secure almost 80% of the original profit from just 37.5% of the original bets, then sub-17/2 runners over 5f to 1m in 8-14 runner contests as the same trip or down 1f from LTO are 13/42 (31% SR) for 32.4pts (+77.7% ROI), with those racing during November & December winning 6 of 18 (33.3%) for 14.94pts (+83%) and this fairly simple approach…

provides us with…a 1pt win bet on Rock Sound @ 10/3 as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, although they sadly don’t go BOG until racedays. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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