Stat of the Day, 7th December 2019

Friday’s pick was…

1.20 Sandown : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4 (Close up, tracked leaders 3 out, ridden to lead on landing last, ran on to win by a 3.25 lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

12.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin @ 4/1

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…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on currently Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is a consistent sort, finishing 123222 in his last six outings and despite not winning any of the last five, he still boasts an impressive 5 wins from 16 over fences, including…

  • 5/13 under today’s jockey Nick Scholfield
  • 4/9 at Class 4
  • 4/6 in December/January
  • 3/7 going right handed
  • and 2/3 in December

Aside from the above, this horse’s name kept cropping up when I was going through my list of possible qualifiers, so I’m going to keep the separate stats brief.

We’ll start by saying that the yard is in good nick too, with 5 winners from 19 in the past fortnight, including 4/12 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2017, Jeremy Scott’s handicap jumpers are 23 from 80 (28.75% SR) for 16.84pts (+21% ROI) when sent off shorter than 7/1 on soft/heavy ground.

Whilst since 2014, Jeremy’s Class 4 handicap chasers are 40/197 (20.3% SR) for 77.5pts (+39.3% ROI), with Nick Scholfield riding 17 winners from 79 (21.5%), whilst clocking up 38.2pts (+48.4%) profit.

And in that same 2014-19 time frame, Jeremy’s sub-12/1 handicap chasers dropping in class are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 90.6pts (+196.9% ROI) with Nick Scholfield once again being the go-to guy with an 11/24 (45.8%) record producing profits of 69.4pts (+289.3%)

Also, since 2014, when a handicap chaser has been Jeremy Scott’s only runner of the day, he’s has 24 winners from 123 (19.5% SR) for 79.5pts (+65.2% ROI) profit with lower grade (ie C4/5) runners winning 20 of 86 (23.2%) for 81.3pts (+95.7%).

And finally, I’ll wrap this one up with a quick nod to Native Robin‘s recent form, since in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases since 2012, horses sent off shorter than 5/1 after finishing 222 in their previous three outings are 38 from 110 (34.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+32.6% ROI) when they’d last ran 11-45 days earlier. This includes 10 winners from 18 (55.6%) for 17.42pts (+96.8%) over 2m3.5f/2m4f …

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1  as was offered by Hills at 4.50pm on Friday. Hills were the only price available as I went to press, but another 8 firms went on to match that price, including some BOG firms. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 12.20 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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