Stat of the Day, 9th December 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding’s form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is…

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including…

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

…whilst based around the above categories and applicable today…handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline’s only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which…

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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