Stat of the Day, 12th December 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

1.10 Lingfield : Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Keen tracked leader, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

7.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner…


Well, it’s a simple “horses for courses” approach today, as we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding running in what look to be favoured conditions. His last four races have ended 1213, culminating in a very decent effort at Wolverhampton five days ago. This was despite setting out from the widest draw on a lesser preferred surface over a slightly shorter than optimal trip after being off track 113 days.

Now back on the Polytrack turned out quickly, things look more well suited for him today, as I’ll hopefully highlight now…

I’ll start with his overall All-Weather record, which is very good. He has made the frame in 10 of 19 starts (52.6%), going on to win 6 times (31.6% SR) with those wins generating 55.66pts profit at a very healthy ROI of 292.9% and with today’s conditions in mind, his A/W record includes…

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 17 in fields of 9-15 runners : a 35.3% SR producing 57.66pts @ 339.2% ROI
  • 6 + 4 / 16 at Class 6 = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 6 + 4 / 16 in cheekpieces = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 5 + 3 / 16 going left handed = 31.25% SR and 44.22pts @ 276.4%
  • 4 + 3 /13 in handicaps = 30.8% SR and 29.8pts @ 229.2%
  • 5 + 2 / 9 on Polytrack = 55.6% SR and 41.86pts  @ 465.1%
  • 5 + 2 / 8 over 1m2f/1m3f = 62.5% SR and 42.85pts @ 535.6%
  • 4 +1 / 6 here at Chelmsford = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over 1m2f = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over this course and distance = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • and 3 + 1 /5 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter = 60% SR and 16.17pts @ 323.4%

…and when wearing cheekpieces, going left handed on Polytrack over 1m2f in a Class 6 field of 11-15 runners within 10 days of his last run, he is 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 32.42pts (+810.6% ROI) profit, all over today’s course and distance and all within the last eight months…

backing up…a 1pt win bet on Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Hills at 5.40pm on Wednesday, whilst SkyBet were next best at a half point shorter for those of you still able to get BOG from them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 7.20 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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