Stat of the Day, 13th December 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

7.20 Chelmsford : Muraaqeb @ 4/1 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, headway over 1f out, went 2nd and hung left inside final furlong, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.10 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 5-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Heavy ground worth £6,238 to the winner… 

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding has finished 212231 in his last six starts, all in handicap hurdle contests with today’s jockey, Harry Reed, in the saddle, including a 2 length victory at Ayr when last seen almost six weeks ago. He is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 19.09pts (+112.3% ROI) in handicap hurdles since joining Tristan Davidson’s yard (all ridden by Harry Reed), including…

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 22.09pts (+157.8%) at 2m6f to 3m1.5f
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 21.17pts (+176.5%) going left handed
  • 4/8 (50%) for 6.50pts (+81.25%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 25.57pts (+365.3%) in races worth less than £8k

But Tristan’s success with hurdlers isn’t just based around this particular horse, as since the start of 2018 his other hurdlers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 22.54pts (+70.5% ROI), with the following at play today…

  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.68pts (+98.8%) using Harry Reed’s services
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 35.1pts (+195%) at odds of 11/4 to 9/1
  • 6/10 (60%) for 30.57pts (+305.7%) at 31-75 days since last run
  • and 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.89pts (+221%) at 2m4.5f to 2m7f…

…whilst the yard’s LTO winners are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 22.33pts (+77% ROI) since 2015, including of note today…

  • 10/22 (45.5%) for 27.38pts (+124.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.64pts (+105.3%) with 7/8 yr olds
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 6.55pts (+81.9%) at 2m7f to 3m0.5f

pointing towards…a 1pt win bet on Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 2.10 Bangor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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