Stat of the Day, 27th December 2019

Boxing Day’s pick was…

1.20 Kempton : Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Raced keenly, led until fell 10th)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, All Weather Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner…

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Simon Crisford’s three-year-old handicap debutant was a winner on his most recent start.

Let’s break that down:

Crisford with handicap debutants is 16 from 62, 14 further places (25.8%, A/E 1.15, IV 2.59) in the last two years

With handicap debutants at Wolverhampton, he is 4 from 9, three further places (44.44%, +14.63, A/E 2.09, IV 4.29)

His overall Wolver handicap record in the last five years is an impressive 14 from 45, 13 further places (31.11%, +26.08, A/E 1.3, IV 3.01)

With last time out winners, Crisford is 28 from 109 in the last two years (22 further places). That’s 25.69% winners, +1.27, A/E 1.00, IV 1.34.

Classic Design is a son of Pivotal, whose progeny perform well on the all-weather:

In the last two years, they are 54 from 355 (78 further places), for +7.76 (A/E 1.01, IV 1.47), with three-year-olds winning at about 20%.

And, if you don’t mind mashing these things together, Pivotal progeny aged three in Wolverhampton handicaps are 11 from 38 (5 further places, +34.78, A/E 1.68, IV 2.77)

Classic Design does have a tricky draw in stall 11, but he was a facile winner last time and has plenty statistically in his favour…

giving us…a 1pt win bet on Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Boxing Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 5.10 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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