Stat of the Day, 4th January 2020

Friday’s pick was…

6.15 Southwell : Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Keen led after 1f, made rest, pushed along 2f out, ran on to win by a length and three quarters)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

11.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Standard Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

Trainer Ed Walker is 4 from 21 (19.05% SR) for 3.21pts (+15.3% ROI) over the last five weeks, from which he has achieved…

  • 3/12 (25%) for 9.36pts (+78%) in handicaps
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) at odds of 7/4 to 5/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.44pts (+214.7%) wih Luke Morris riding a handicapper at 7/4 to 5/1.

Impressive enough figures, of course, but not really enough of a sample size to hang your hat on. Looking further back in time, it’s not too surprising that Ed’s doing well, as over the last three years, his handicappers sent off at 7/4 to 7/1 are 105/477 (22% SR) for 84.8pts (+17.8% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • 95/392 (24.2%) for 118.1pts (+30.1%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 47/187 (25.1%) for 42.2pts (+22.6%) on the A/W
  • 39/164 (23.8%) for 33.6pts (+20.5%) at Class 5
  • 37/155 (23.9%) for 27.1pts (+17.5%) at 1m2f to 1m5f
  • 34/143 (23.8%) for 49.4pts (+34.6%) with females
  • 31/126 (24.6%) for 38.8pts (+30.8%) on Polytrack
  • and 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.3pts (+82.3%) with Luke Morris in the saddle…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.15am on Saturday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 11.40 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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