Stat of the Day, 6th January 2020

Saturday’s pick was…

11.40 Lingfield : Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

1.35 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is a former dual PTP winner and was also a winner under Rules over fences when last seen 11 days ago (Boxing Day). He landed a similar Class 5 contest at Sedgefield on soft ground that day with today’s jockey, Conor O’Farrell, in the saddle.

Conor’s in really good touch post-Christmas, landing three winners on Boxing Day amongst his 7 from 23 (30.4% SR) record since the break that has rewarded those following him with 64.1pts profit at an ROI of some 278.1%, including…

  • 6/12 (50%) for 55.1pts (+458.8%) over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 68pts (+523.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 56pts (+1120%) in handicaps shorter than 2m1f
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.88pts (+69.7%) over fences
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.81pts (+56.2%) at Class 5
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2pts (+50%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • and 1/1 (100%) (on Ripstick LTO) for 4.94pts (+494%) for today’s trainer James Walton

…whose handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 14/1 are 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 23.6pts (+78.7% ROI) over the last two years, including of note today…

  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 30.6pts (+133%) with 8-11 yr olds
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 14.7pts (+64%) with those sent off shorter than 10/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 26.7pts (+243%) at Class 5
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 23.5pts (+195.8%) with Conor O’Farrell in the saddle…

…whilst James’ 8-11 yr olds sent off shorter than 10/1 in Class 5 contests are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 29.73pts (+371.6% ROI) with Conor O’Farrell riding 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 14.63pts (+292.6%) profit…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.05am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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