Stat of the Day, 7th January 2020

Monday’s pick was…

1.35 Ayr : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, headway into 3rd approaching 4 out, left in well held 2nd place 2 out, dropped to 3rd at the last)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner…

Why?

No win in eleven for this for this 5 yr old gelding is probably not the first thing you wanted me to tell you about today’s pick, but I’d quickly add that a run of results reading 334232 does suggest that a win is coming and isn’t out of turn! In fact, he was only beaten by a head over course and distance off this mark, under today’s jockey (Kieran O’Neill) LTO, 9 days ago.

He was headed in the final strides and trainer Robyn Brisland is now applying cheekpieces in a bid to eke a little more out of him in the finish to help him improve what is actually a respectable record for these type of lower grade A/W runners who seem to just take turns at beating each other.

To date he is 4 from 22 (18.2% SR) for 17.57pts (+79.9% ROI) despite his recent run of placed efforts, but what I found interesting looking at this profile was that all four wins have come under a set of conditions prevalent today ie…

  •  off a mark (OR) of 50-65
  • trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • A/W handicap races
  • left handed tracks
  • standard going
  • wearing a tongue tie…

…and when all of the above have been present as they are today, he is 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 29.57pts (+295.7% ROI) profit, including…

  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.25pts (+232.2%) here at Southwell
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+342.3%) under Kieran O’Neill
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.75pts (+112.6%) over course and distance
  • 2/5 (40%) for 8.03pts (+160.6%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.75pts (+325.1%) within 10 days of his last run.

Those A/W stats aren’t too surprising, if you knew that his sire is North Light, whose offspring are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+119.1% ROI) on the All-Weather over the last four years, including of relevance today…

  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 55.2pts (+141.5%) with male runners
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 56.2pts (+147.9%) over trips of 8.5 to 12 furlongs
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) on Standard going
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 59.2pts (+169.1%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 47.8pts (+145%) in handicaps
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+238.9%) at 6-15 days since they last ran…

…whilst 4-8 yr old males at 8.5-12 furlongs on Standard going are 10/30 (33.3% SR) for 64.2pts (+214% ROI), including…

  • 8/25 (32%) for 55.8pts (+223.2%) in handicaps
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 41.2pts (+317.2%) at 6-15 dslr
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 40.1pts (+401%) in handicaps at 6-15 dslr…

…which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.00am on Tuesday. (10/3 was widely available at 9.05am, whilst Coral were at 7/2.) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *