Stat of the Day, 8th January 2020

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.15 Southwell : Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well towards finish)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f  on Standard To Slow polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is making just her fourth start today and her handicap debut having already made the frame twice including finishing third last time out almost ten weeks ago.

Her name kept cropping up when I was going through the various reports I use each evening to find my picks, so I’m just going to briefly touch upon three of the relevant angles for today.

We’ll start with an obvious one, trainer William Haggas’ record here at Kempton, where his A/W handicappers sent off at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 are 13 from 45 (28.9% SR) for 17.5pts (+38.9% ROI) over the last four years, from which those racing in 3yo races are 5/14 (35.7%) for 5.07pts (+36.2%).

Next we have Mr Haggas’ A/W handicappers who have only had one outing in the previous three months and these runners are 12 from 33 (36.4% SR) for 15.9pts (+48.2% ROI)

And as this filly is making her handicap bow today, I’ll round this off by saying that the yard’s handicap debutants sent off at 2/1 or longer over the last three years are 31 from 138 (22.5% SR) for 49.1pts (+35.6% ROI), including the following of relevance/note today…

  • 19/73 (26%) for 31.6pts (+43.3%) over 7f to 1m
  • 19/56 (33.9%) for 65.2pts (+116.4%) at 26-120 days since last run
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 24.6pts (+79.5%) on the A/W
  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 17.6pts (+62.8%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 25.1pts (+69.7%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 6.8pts (+97.2%) here at Kempton…

…whilst those racing over 7f-1m on the A/W at 26-120 dslr are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 12.24pts (+153% ROI), a stat that also applies to Qaabil who runs for Mr Haagas in the 4.00 at Newcastle and is currently available at 7/2 BOG…

…but I’ve opted for...a 1pt win bet on Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG as was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet (and also 11/4 at Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.10am on Wednesday. This is a little shorter than I normally post, but I think there might be a slight drift this morning if Adam Kirby’s ride attracts money. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.45 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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