Saturday’s pick was…
4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG
…in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner…
Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.
That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..
- 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
- 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
- and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today’s jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)
Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today…
- 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
- 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
- 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
- 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
- 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
- 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
- and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D…
…whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)…
…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!