Stat of the Day, 13th January 2020

Saturday’s pick was…

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

…in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner…


Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

  • 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
  • and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today’s jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
  • 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
  • 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
  • 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D…

…whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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