Stat of the Day, 15th January 2020

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.15 Doncaster : Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Tracked leading pair, reminders before 13th, weakened next, tailed off )

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

Because Plumpton was abandoned!

So I’m going to keep this fairly short (and hopefully sweet) as Plan B swings into in operation this morning, after the race I’d done most prep on fell foul of the weather, turning us towards an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has finished 2211 in her last four starts, the only of her races where today’s jockey Shane Kelly has been in situ.

All four races were here at Wolverhampton with defeats by just 0.5 and 0.75 lengths were followed by a victory by a neck, all over 7f. This suggests she struggled to see out that trip and was dropped down to today’s 6f last time out, where she got home by a good three lengths.

James Eustace’s yard isn’t the busiest at any time really (112 runners in each of 2018 & 2019), but his horses are 3 from 10 (30% SR) for 5.93pts (+59.3% ROI) over the last four weeks and with another two making the frame, I’d guess they’re going pretty well right now.

Again another small sample size, but since 2015, James’ handicappers sent off at Evens to 11/2 (surely that’s us today?) 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 13.2pts (+146.9% ROI), including…

  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 16.22pts (+270.4%) in fields of 10-12 runners
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.48pts (+189.6%) during December to February
  • 3/4 (75%) for 5.87pts (+146.7%) with LTO winners

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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