Stat of the Day, 16th January 2020

Wednesday’s pick was…

2.30 Wolverhampton : Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG 8th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, ridden and every chance 2f out, weakened approaching final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

1.10 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Oscar’s Leader @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner…

Why?

Once again the weather has played its part, removing three of the top four selections on my daily shortlist and whilst that made picking today’s selection a little easier, it’s also another positive for posting the picks on the morning of the race. Otherwise, we could very well have had two non-runners yesterday and today.

So, where are we? A 7 yr old gelding yet to win in nine starts, that’s hardly inspiring on paper, but he did produce his best effort for some time (if not ever), when third last time out six weeks ago on his debut for new handler Jennie Candlish.

Jennie’s no mug, I’ll tell you and she’s very adept at getting the best out of what is a pretty small string of runners, so I’m bowing to her superior knowledge for stepping this one up in trip by a good 6 furlongs to run here. The obvious positives of him coming here today are that he’s used to running on soft ground (6 of his 9 starts so far) and the yard have done well here of late from a small number of entries, as…

Jennie Candlish + Market Rasen + last 4 years = 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 56.45pts (+161.3% ROI) and these include of relevance today…

  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+99.5%) at Class 4
  • 6/25 (24%) for 51.7pts (+206.8%) in handicaps
  • 6/15 (40%) for 26.9pts (+179.6%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.5pts (+165.1%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 64.7pts (+588.5%) at 26-45 days since last run
  • 4/8 (50%) for 60.5pts (+756.3%) from 7 yr olds
  • 3/12 (25%) for 47.1pts (+392.2%) on Soft ground
  • 3/10 (30%) for 44.02pts (+440.2%) in December/January
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 52.8pts (+659.8%) over trips of 2m5.5f to 2m7.5f

…now, some of the above P/L and ROI figures are somewhat skewed by a 25/1 winner that paid 46.55 at Betfair SP, but that doesn’t detract from Jennie’s excellent strike rates here under the above conditions and filtering down from the top we also see that 7 yr old, Class 4, handicappers sent off at 2/1 to 7/1 are three from four (the fourth was a runner-up beaten by three quarters of a length) with that 75% strike rate producing 13.73pts at an ROI of 343.4%…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Oscar’s Leader @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Hills at 8.10am Thursday morning with plenty of 10/3 knocking about (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.10 Market Rasen

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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