Stat of the Day, 21st January 2020

Monday’s pick was…

3.30 Newcastle : Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide, chased leaders in 3rd, left in 2nd at 6th, hit next, lost 2nd 3 out, rallied into 2nd again between last 2, no chance with winner)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

1.30 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 5-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner…

Why?

Not a lot of racing to actually choose from today, but this one looks too long to ignore. A winner of two of his last six starts, this 7 yr old gelding scored on his penultimate outing over similar trip and going to today at Ffos Las, ahead of finding the step up to Class 2 too tough at Ascot last time out (a month ago).

He’s had a short rest and now drops in class and gets weight all round to run at a venue his trainer has done well at in recent years, as Evan Williams’ horses have won 19 of 83 (22.9% SR) for profits of 66.8pts (+80.4% ROI) here at Exeter over the past five years.

I could actually draw stumps there and say that’s a good enough reason, but SotD wouldn’t be SotD without some drilling down into the base stat, would it? So, here goes, from those original 83 runners, they are…

  • 17/71 (23.9%) for 64.9pts (+91.4%) from male runners
  • 17/64 (26.6%) for 63.8pts (+99.7%) for prizes of £0-10k
  • 13/46 (28.3%) for 60.6pts (+131.8%) in handicaps
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 53.7pts (+141.4%) after 26-90 days rest
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 21.4pts (+62.9%) in chases
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 28.8pts (+120%) in Novice contests
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 8.73pts (+33.6%) at Class 3
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 17pts (+242.7%) in Novice handicaps…

…whilst males competing for a handicap worth £0-10k are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 34.6pts (+247.1% ROI) after 26-90 days rest, including 3/4 in Novice handicaps, 2/5 at Class 3 and 2/5 over fences…

…pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.30 Exeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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