Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2020

Tuesday’s pick was…

1.30 Exeter : Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 11.27am due to the going)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner…

Why?

Pretty low grade/quality stuff here today, where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other. Despite that, our 5 yr old mare is one of the more consistent types at this level and has made the frame four times from her last six efforts, including one win and she was a runner-up when last seen a week ago, plus she was a winner the last time she ran in non-handicap company.

Her record on the A/W is better than most at this level with a 50% place strike rate after 3 wins (21.4% SR) and 4 places from 14, including the following under today’s conditions…

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 12 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 within four weeks of her last run
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 off a mark (OR) of 46-50
  • 3 wins from 8 in fields of 12 or more runners
  • and 2 wins, 3 places from 7 over a one mile trip…

…whilst in Class 6, 12-14 runner contests off 46-50 within four weeks of her last run, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 146.45pts (+2929% ROI) including 2/3 (66.6%) for 129.6pts (+4320%) over a mile. The P/L and ROI here are skewed by a 50/1 winner paying 130/1 at betfair SP, but the strike rates are still more than valid!

Her trainer Robyn Brisland is 4 from 16 (25% SR) over the last fortnight and the yard’s horses seem to go well under today’s jockey Kieran O’Neill, winning 3 of 10 in the last fortnight and 6 of 23 (26.1% SR) for 11.91pts (+51.8% ROI) so far this year, including…

  • 6/10 (60%) for 24.91pts (+249.1%) at odds of 6/4 to 10/1
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 10.07pts (+59.2%) at 5f to 1m
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.07pts (+93.3%) at Class 6
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 21.07pts (+351.1%) at 6/4 to 10/1 in Class 6 contests at 5f to 1m.

And with this mare turning out pretty soon after her recent runner-up finish LTO, it might be of interest to know that Robyn Brisland’s runners are 16 from 69 (23.2% SR) for 62.3pts (+90.3%) within 4-10 days of their last run with All-Weather contests yielding 15 from 50 (30%) and 68.7pts (+137.4%) profit.

And from those 50 A/W runners quickly turned back out, Robyn is…

  • 10/25 (40%) for 70.9pts (+283.6%) with females
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 36.1pts (+150.3%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 53.4pts (+197.9%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.2pts (+154.2%) lost by a neck to 3 lengths LTO
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 39pts (+144.4%) over 5f to 1m
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 39.5pts (+263%) from females on Polytrack
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.43pts (+53%) in January
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 17pts (+188.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.41pts (+45.8%) with Kieran O’Neill in the saddle…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.30 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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