Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2020

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.30 Kempton : Atalanta Queen @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (led, ridden well over 1f out, headed 1f out, well held when lost 2nd 100 yards out, weakened towards finish)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.20 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,408 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding returns to action after a 40-day break, ahead of which he made the frame in three of his last four starts, winning twice and filling the runner-up berth on another occasion. He was a winner last time in another Class 3, soft ground Handicap Chase and now will seek to continue the recent good form of his stablemates…

…trained by Kerry Lee. It’s fair to say that the yard has been quiet of late. Her first runners of the year appeared on 11th January and shes only had five out so far this year, but those runners do boast a 2 from 4 return over fences with both wins coming from 3 soft ground efforts.

More longer-term, though, Kerry’s handicap chasers who won a handicap chase LTO are 10 from 36 (27.8% SR) for 27.1pts (+75.2% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2016 and they’re really good figures for a “set, bet and forget” angle if you wanted one. I rarely blanket bet an angle and attempt to weed out some of the losers without disposing of too many winners, so based on the above stat, here’s my top 10 filters…

  • 9/29 (31%) for 32.5pts (+112.2%) at Evens to 9/1
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 21.75pts (+80.5%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 31.4pts (+142.7%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 29pts (+132%) from December to March
  • 8/20 (40%) for 28.75pts (+143.8%) with runners aged 7-10 yrs old
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 38pts (+223.6%) off a mark (OR) of 126-145
  • 6/20 (30%) for 11.1pts (+55.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m6f
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 19.5pts (+139.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 32.6pts (+296.1%) at Class 3
  • and 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.6pts (+104%) on soft ground…

…whilst 7-10 yr olds sent off at Evens to 13/2 in 5-10 runner contests during October to March after 16-60 days off track are 5 from 5 (100% SR) for 26.42pts (+528.4% ROI), including 4 off marks of 126-145, 3 at 2m-2m6f, 3 in races worth less than £10k, 2 at Class 3 and 2 on soft ground…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Thursday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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