Stat of the Day, 24th January 2020

Thursday’s pick was…

3.20 Wetherby : Storm Control @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, effort 4 out, held when hampered next, soon weakened)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Klopp @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old filly is in good nick right now, with improved results reading 3221 in her last four contests, all under today’s jockey Cameron Hardie and all on Tapeta. She’s actually had 4 wins and 3 placed finishes from just 8 efforts at Class 6 on the A/W (all on tapeta) with that 50% strike rate yielding 22.85pts profit at a healthy ROI of 285.6% with Cameron riding 3 winners from 6.

Trainer Antony Brittain is also in generally good recent form too with 4 winners and 2 placers from his last dozen runners, of which jockey Cameron has 3 wins and a place from 10 as this trainer/jockey combo continues to relatively quietly churn out winners, as they tend to do at this time of year in this type of contest.

When I say time of year and type of contest, I’m specifically referring to this angle : 2017-20 / Jan- Mar / C4-6 / AW hcp / Brittain + Hardie = 19 from 117 (16.2% SR) for 84.8pts (+72.5% ROI), which under today’s actual conditions produces…

  • 17/83 (20.5%) for 109.8pts (+132.3%) in 9-13 runner contests
  • 16/79 (20.3%) for 94.9pts (+120.1%) over 5f to 1m
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 69.5pts (+73.2%) on Tapeta
  • 14/64 (21.9%) for 76pts (+118.8%) with horses rested for less than 3 weeks
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 57.9pts (+103.4%) at Class 6
  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 3.31pts (+7.51%) at 6/1 or shorter
  • 9/55 (16.4%) for 54.7pts (+99.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 9/43 (20.9%) for 27.6pts (+64.2%) in January

…whilst, from the above, Brittain + Hardie + 9-13 runners + Tapeta hcps + horses with less than 3 weeks rest = 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 70.8pts (+308% ROI), including 4/9 (44.4%) at 6/1 max, 4/11 (36.4%) at Wolves, 3/8 (37.5%) in Jan and 3/11 (27.3%) at C6…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Klopp @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 8.00am Friday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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