Stat of the Day, 27th January 2020

Saturday’s pick was…

1.10 Lingfield : Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, effort entering final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by a length and a half)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

Trainer Antony Brittain seems to have his string ticking over nicely right now and has 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) all in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, including 2 from 6 (33.3%) here at Wolverhampton and he seeks to improve those stats with today’s pick, who might well be 10 yrs old now, but is showing no signs of heading quietly towards retirement.

In fact, he has 2 wins and 3 places from his last seven starts, including a win in another Class 5 Tapeta handicap at Newcastle last time out, 6 days ago.

Jockey Harry Russell has been on board for both recent wins and he’s in situ again today, as this horse seeks an 11th A/W handicap success, as he comes here with a record reading 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 61.4pts (+120.3% ROI) in such contests on Tapeta and including the following dozen profitable and relevant angles at play today…

  • 9/45 (20%) for 63.6pts (+141.2%) on Standard going
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 21.1pts (+81%) at odds of 5/2 to 8/1
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 9pts (+28.1%) since the start of 2018
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 54.7pts (+195.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 6/25 (24%) for 25.5pts (+102%) in a visor
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 44.7pts (+186.4%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 47.7pts (+207.4%) in Class 5 contests worth less than £3.5k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 48.7pts (+243.5%) over course and distance
  • 5/10 (50%) for 29.92pts (+299.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.2pts (+134.8%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/8 (25%) for 36.1pts (+451.4%) after winning LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 10.6pts (+530%) under jockey Harry Russell…

…and over course and distance wearing at visor in a race worth less than £3.5k at odds of 5/2 to 8/1, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.6pts (+392% ROI) since the start of 2018…

…pointing me towards...a 1pt win bet on Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning, although Hills were offering half a point more (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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